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NHC: Fiona Now Over the Turks and Caicos; It May Eventually Impact Canada

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Fiona is battering the Turks and Caicos islands Tuesday, eying Bermuda Wednesday.

Florida - Tuesday September 20, 2022: After dumping a foot or more of rain Monday onto Puerto Rico, and thrashing the Dominican Republic with much of the same over night, Hurricane Fiona on Tuesday is now battering the Turks and Caicos Islands.

It has increased in strength and is now rated as a Category 3 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph. That makes it the first major hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

As of 8 am EDT Tuesday morning the National Hurricane Center reported that the center of Fiona was located about 10 miles north of Grand Turk Island, moving north-northwest at about 10 mph.

This general movement is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn northward Tuesday night or Wednesday. Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.

The track takes it eventually up to the maritime provinces of Canada, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island.

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WINDS: Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 mph, with gusts to 138 mph. Hurricane-force winds spanning up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 150 miles.

RAIN: Heavy rains and life-threatening localized flash flooding continue over sectors of the Dominican Republic Tuesday. Heavy rains around downtown Fiona impact Turks and Caicos during Tuesday afternoon with continued life-threatening flooding. Additional localized flooding and urban emergency are possible in southern sectors of Puerto Rico.

Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:
-British and US Virgin Islands: Additional 1 to 2 inches locally over next 24 hours.
-South Puerto Rico: Local additional amounts of 1 to 4 inches over next 24 hours. Total storm amounts 12 to 20 inches with a local maximum of 35 inches.
-Northern Puerto Rico: Local additional amounts of 1 to 2 inches over the next 24 hours. Storm totals 4 to 12 inches with a local maximum of 20 inches.
-Dominican Republic: 1 to 4 additional inches with local maximum of 6 inches over the next 24 hours. Storm totals up to 20 inches across the eastern section.
-Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 additional inches.
-Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches

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WAVES: Maximum wave heights are currently 29 feet, but are forecast to build quite significantly to around 45 ft over the next 48 hours as Fiona moves to a position near 27N71W by 22/0600 UTC.

SWELLS: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast
of the United States through Wed night. The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

CYCLONIC TIDE: The combination of cyclonic surge and high tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to flood as increased waters moving inland from the coast.
Cyclonic surge could increase water levels to 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in coastal wind areas in Turks and Caicos through Tuesday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the southeast Bahamas in areas of coastal winds through Tuesday.

HANGOVER: Fiona-generated tides are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the north coast of Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos, and southeast Bahamas. These high winds will continue to extend westward across the southwest Atlantic toward the central and northwest Bahamas and the east coast of the United States through midweek. High tide could cause life-threatening hangover conditions and offshore currents. Please check products from your local weather office.

Satellite imagery depicts a small eye feature with Fiona. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nautical miles of the center in the NE quadrant, 120 nautical miles in the SE quadrant, 60 nautical miles in the SW quadrant, and within 90 nautical miles of the center in the NW quadrant.

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DISTURBANCE #2

The National Hurricane Center is also tracking another system headed for the Caribbean that has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 5 days.

It is now a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms while moving westward at 15-20 mph.

Gradual development of this system is forecast during the next several days as the system approaches the Windward Islands, and a tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week as the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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