Florida - Saturday September 24, 2022: The revised track for Tropical Storm Ian indicates that it may make landfall along the Florida panhandle on Friday however the National Hurricane Center cautions that "uncertainty over the long-term track and intensity of the forecast is higher than usual."
Regardless of Ian's exact track and intensity, the NHC reports that there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida panhandle by the middle of the week.
Flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid-week. Additional flooding on rivers across northern Florida and parts of the southeast cannot be ruled out.
Residents of Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and closely monitor updates to the forecast.
Advisory Ten: 11 AM EDT Sunday, September 25
1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.
Flash and urban flooding is possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid-week. Additional flooding on rivers across north Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. cannot be ruled out later this week.
2. Life-threatening storm surges and hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, where a hurricane warning is now in effect. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
3. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the week, but uncertainty in the long-term track and intensity forecasts is higher than usual.
Regardless of Ian's exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida panhandle by the middle of the week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast.
SEE the 12-noon Sunday briefing on Tropical Storm Ian from Acting National Hurricane Center Director Jamie Rhome HERE>https://fb.watch/fMdgW4MFTP/
NHC: 8 AM SUNDAY OUTLOOK
As of 8 AM Sunday, the center of Tropical Storm Ian was about 320 miles (550 km) south-southeast of Grand Cayman. Ian is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).
A turn toward the northwest at a similar forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Monday and north on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica today, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday.
Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin later today. Ian is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight and reach major hurricane strength by late Monday or Monday night before it reaches western Cuba.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 millibars (29.56 inches) based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by tonight or early Monday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Cuba by Monday night or early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:
* Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.
* Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches.
* Florida Keys to the southern and western Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches through Wednesday morning.
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid-week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida given already saturated antecedent conditions.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the watch area Monday night and early Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in areas of onshore winds on Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and will spread to the Cayman Islands later today. Swells will then spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
