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NHC: Low Chance of Development for Disturbance East of Florida; Potential Tropical Cyclone One in the Gulf Not Yet a Storm


Florida - Wednesday June 19, 2024: The odds are still low for any chance of development for that the area of low pressure east of the Florida Peninsula.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) still gives it just a 10% to 20% chance of formation over the next week. However it'll be kicking up some rough seas and generating rain along the eastern Florida coastline as it pushes west northwest towards northern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean = Disturbance #1:
An area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern United States by the latter part of this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Potential Tropical Cyclone One

Potential Tropical Cyclone One in the western Gulf of Mexico is little changed. It still hasn't reached storm status yet, although the National Hurricane Center (NHC) still expects it will soon become the first cyclone of the season. If that happens it will be named Alberto.

The National Hurricane Center has been issuing advisories on this system which is expected to make landfall in central Mexico before the weekend. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the south Texas coast.

2. Active Systems - Potential Tropical Cyclone One:

As of 5 AM EST Wednesday morning Potential Tropical Cyclone One was centered near 22.7N 93.8W or 230 nautical miles ESE of La Pesca Mexico. It was moving WNW at 7 knots.

It's estimated minimum central pressure was 998 millibars. It had maximum sustained wind speed of 35 knots with gusts to 45 knot. Seas 12 ft or greater are covering a large area within 420 nautical miles NE and 390 nautical miles W quadrants, with peak seas near 16 ft. 

Heavy rain from this system is impacting portions of southern Mexico and northern portions of Central America, and is starting to impact portions of Texas. The system is forecast move on a westward path with increasing forward speed today. 

Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico and into South Texas.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One
Potential Tropical Cyclone One

Disturbance # 2

Meanwhile, the Hurricane Center is monitoring another disturbances just east of Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

3. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system through early next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.