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NHC: "Some Potential" for a Disturbance Now in the Mid-Tropical Atlantic to Become a Tropical Depression "Late this Week"; the Forecast Track Has it Heading for Florida

Florida - Tuesday July 30, 2024: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that there is "some potential" for a disturbance in the mid-tropical Atlantic to become a tropical depression "late this week in the vicinity of the Bahamas," and the forecast track has it heading for Florida.

The Hurricane Center has now increased to 60% the chances that this "tropical wave" will become a tropical depression within the next 7-days. On Monday the chances were 50%.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne reports that "it is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this system may bring across East-Central Florida."

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION PAGE

According to a discussion of this disturbance on the NHC website, the "winds and seas associated with (this) vigorous tropical wave will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands tonight into Wednesday."

The disturbance will then move to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thursday, and across the Bahamas Friday and Friday night.

By Saturday, or Saturday night it should be north-northeast of the Bahamas.

In the vicinity of the Bahamas, the NHC forecasts that "there is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week."

NHC - Disturbance in the Central Tropical Atlantic

A large tropical wave centered several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower activity due to environmental dry air.

However, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas.

Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

NWS Melbourne