Tropical Storm Sara continues slowly, moving toward the west just north of Honduras. Sarah will continue to move barely through the day on Saturday and Sunday. On Sunday, it will start to take a more west-northwestern turn, traveling over the Yucatán Peninsula. Sara will make landfall in Belize early Sunday and travel over the southern mountains of this country. The southern region of Belize is mountainous, with the highest peak, Doyle’s Delight, reaching slightly over 3,600 feet.
The high terrain, other portions of Guatemala, and the Mexican state of Campeche will damage Sara’s structure. By the time it emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, Sara should be, at the very most, a tropical depression. Parts of Belize, including a big chunk of the Peninsula and Guatemala and El Salvador, could receive between 10 and 15 inches of rain. These amounts of rain could trigger flash floods, landslides, and mudslides over the mountainous terrain.
Moisture wraps around! What’s after the Gulf of Mexico?
The timing is aligning in our favor. There is a trough that is currently moving over California. This upper low-pressure system will dig down deeper and more southward over northern Mexico early in the week. On the surface, a low-pressure system will develop (with the help of the upper-level low) over New Mexico. This low-pressure system will come with a strong cold front. It has enough strength to push Sara’s remnant fast toward the east, and it will also increase the wind shear and prevent Sara from redeveloping.
Timing of impacts to Florida.
The cold front will absorb Sara’s remnants. The moisture will quickly travel over and wrap around the Gulf of Mexico, arriving in Florida late Tuesday night. Much of Sara's moisture will affect the Florida panhandle from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. There will be torrential rains and perhaps even the possibility of some isolated severe storms. By Wednesday morning, storms will be affecting parts of North Florida, moving into Central Florida through the afternoon hours. Depending on how much sunshine these areas receive before the storms arrive, there could also be the risk for some severe storms to develop across north and central Florida. For South Florida, the chance for storms starts Wednesday afternoon into the evening. The front will exit the Florida keys very early on Thursday morning. Thursday will be a very windy day across much of the Peninsula. The wind will mainly come from the north, pushing lots of dry air and much cooler temperatures to the end of the week. Strong winds will persist through the end of the week and shift from the northwest by Friday night.
How much rainfall? Severe weather risk?
It is still early to pinpoint the exact amount and exact places across Florida. We need to wait until whatever’s left of Sara emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. As of now, we are looking at higher grain to affect the Florida peninsula early next week. Remember that there could still be some isolated spots with high amounts across Central Florida that could reach around 4 inches.
Residents also need to monitor the severe weather risk for next week. With plenty of moisture in place and the big differences in temperatures, there could be storms that could produce gusty winds, and there could be the chance to have some storms that could produce isolated tornadoes. We will continue to monitor the situation and bring you updates Through the weekend and into the next work week.