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NHC Friday 2 pm: Disturbance East of the Leeward Islands Has a 70% Chance of Development Within 5 Days

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NOAA
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The formation chance through 48 hours is medium at 60 percent.

Florida - Friday September 1, 2022: As of 2 pm Friday, September 2, the National Hurricane Center reported that a disturbance east of the Leeward Island has a 70% chance of developing within the next 5 days.

Disturbance 1 - East of the Leeward Island

An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over the eastern portion of the circulation.

Environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, but any additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression.

The disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains may occur over portions of the Leeward Islands during the next couple of days, and interests in that area should monitor the progress of the system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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