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NHC: Disturbance in the South-East Caribbean is Declared Potential Tropical Cyclone 4

PTC 4.jpg
90% chance of formation within 5 days

Florida - Thursday September 22, 2022: The National Hurricane Center has declared that a disturbance in the south-east Caribbean is Potential Tropical Cyclone Four.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 4:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located over the south-eastern Caribbean Sea continue to build.

Although upper-level winds are currently inhibiting development, the environment is forecast to gradually become more favorable in a couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form at that time.

The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and be over the central Caribbean Sea this weekend.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the Windward Islands, northern Venezuela, and the ABC island chain Thursday. These impacts are likely to spread to northeastern Colombia Thursday evening.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

PTC 4 Track.jpg

Hurricane Fiona Update

Major Hurricane Fiona is centered near 27.4N 70.6W at 22/0900 UTC or 420 nm SW of Bermuda moving NNE at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 934 millibars.

Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 knots with gusts to 140 knots. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 25N to 33N between 63W and 73W. Peak seas near Fiona are currently estimated to be 51 feet. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass just to the west of Bermuda Thursday night, and approach Nova Scotia on Friday, then move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.

Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Some weakening is expected to begin on Friday, but Fiona is forecast to still be producing hurricane-force winds Friday night and Saturday after it has become post-tropical.

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