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NHC: TS Philippe Stays Alive; TS Rina Gone Away


Florida - Monday October 2, 2023: As of Monday morning the National Hurricane Center reported that Tropical Storm Philippe was still churning its way west towards the Upper Leeward Islands, despite earlier predictions it would fade away.

However, it is relatively weak, and expected to remain a weak tropical storm in the short term as a result of strong vertical wind shear. However, Philippe is forecast to re-intensify into a hurricane when it moves generally northward into the central Atlantic Ocean in two to three days.

Then it will become post-tropical late in the week after it turns northeastward. Philippe poses no threat to Florida and its not expected to make landfall anywhere else on the U.S. east coast.

Meanwhile, Rina, got blown away by strong vertical wind shear over the weekend and the NHC downgraded it into a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night. It is expected to dissipate later today.

7 a.m. Monday Tropical Storm Philippe


As of 7 a.m. EST, the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.0 north, longitude 60.5 west, about 125 miles east-southeast of Barbuda.

Philippe is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph, and a northwestward motion is expected to resume later today through early Tuesday.

A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast to occur by late Tuesday, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, primarily east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 millibars or 29.47 inches.

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday:

Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches

Rest of Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas beginning later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

10 p.m. Sunday Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Advisory Number 15


The National Hurricane Center downgraded Tropical Storm Rina Sunday night. It is now a remnant low.

As of 10 a.m. EST Sunday the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina was located near latitude 27.1 north, and longitude 55.4 west. This post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north at about 13 mph. This general motion is expected to continue throughout today, Monday October 2.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to about 30 mph, with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 1010 millibars or 29.83 inches.

This post-tropical remnant low is expected to dissipate on Monday.