Florida - Thursday August 1, 2024: There remains a lot of uncertainty over the development, and track, of a large tropical wave that has been moving north-northwest in recent days. Forecasters say that this wave still has the potential to develop as it lifts northwest, generally in the direction of the Florida Peninsula.
There is little chance for development over the next 48 hours, but it could become more organized this weekend or early next week in the vicinity of Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
This system is now given a 20% chance of development within 48-hours. The chance of development within the next 7-days remains at 60%.
As of Thursday morning, this strong tropical wave, and its attendant winds and seas, were just north of Hispaniola. It has been moving west-northwest. It is expected to slowly cross the Bahamas Thursday night into Friday night.
It's predicted to continue west-northwest Saturday and Sunday and impact portions of the Straits of Florida, South Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico-there is some potential for a tropical depression to form this weekend across that area.
NHC - Strong Tropical Wave
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea.
Development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near the Florida Peninsula. Interests across the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
