Florida - Thursday April 4, 2024: Colorado State University (CSU) Thursday released their 2024 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Forecast in which they predict an "extremely active" season.
"We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," states their report.
According to their report, current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer through the fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification, states the report.
CSU researchers say they have "above-normal confidence" in their forecast for an early April outlook.
Colorado State University Forecast for 2024 Hurricane Activity- SUMMARY
(The full forecast is available at tropical.colostate.edu)
When waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of well above-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. A very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. In addition, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricanes.
While the tropical Pacific is currently characterized by El Niño conditions, these are likely to transition to La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October. La Niña tends to decrease upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. These decreased upper-level winds result in reduced vertical wind shear, favoring Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification.
Given the combined hurricane-favorable signals of an extremely warm Atlantic and a likely developing La Niña, the forecast team has higher-than-normal confidence for an April outlook that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active.
This is the highest prediction for hurricanes that CSU has ever issued with their April outlook. The prior highest April forecast was for nine hurricanes, which has been called for several times since the university began issuing April forecasts in 1995. However, the team stresses that the April outlook historically has the lowest level of skill of CSU's operational seasonal hurricane forecasts, given the considerable changes that can occur in the atmosphere-ocean between April and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August–October.