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NHC: Disturbance Off Florida's East Coast Now Has a 40% Chance of Development; Alberto Makes Landfall in Mexico, Another System Is Right Behind It

NWS Melbourne

Florida - Thursday June 20, 2024: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has increased to 40% the chance that a disturbance off Florida's east coast will development into a Tropical Depression. This system is moving in a northwesterly direction and appears to be heading towards the north-east Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Alberto, the first named stormed of the 2024 Hurricane Season, has made landfall in central Mexico, and a second disturbance over the Yucatan Peninsula is on its heels.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean - Invest - AL92
A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles east of the northernmost Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of this system could lead to a tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Tropical Storm Alberto

Tropical Storm Alberto has made landfall in central Mexico. It is a very large storm that is bringing heavy rain and flooding to that region. Moderate coastal flooding is expected along the south Texas coast throughout today.


3. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern Mexico and northern Central America on Friday.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.