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Tropical Storm Isaías Nearing the Atlantic Coast

National Hurricane Center

Update as of 9:00 AM Sunday:

Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to move along the Florida Atlantic coast today from Palm Beach county northward toward the Space Coast today and tonight with tropical storm force winds, locally heavy rain, and rough seas. The Tropical Storm is expected to be at its closest approach to the First Coast late Sunday night and Monday morning before departing for the Carolinas. Conditions are expected to gradually improve late Monday afternoon and evening.

Isaias weakened slightly more overnight; top sustained winds are near 65 mph as of the early Sunday morning advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Warnings have been changed to Tropical Storm Warnings from Hallandale Beach northward along the Florida east coast. Inland Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect from Palm Beach county north to the Orlando and Jacksonville metropolitan areas. Occasional tropical storm force winds are likely in the warning areas as bands develop and move inland Sunday into Sunday night.

Storm Surge Watches continue from St. Augustine southward, where 2 to 4 feet of water are possible in areas of typically dry land somewhere within the watch area. The times of high tide are around sunrise and sunset, which is when the inundation is most likely to occur.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are forecast generally along the I-95 corridor and eastward to the immediate coast, with isolated amounts of up to 6 inches possible based on the latest National Hurricane Center forecast. 1 to 2 inches are forecast west of I-95 in places.

Areas farther west outside of the tropical storm warning area may also see occasional rain bands later today and into Monday morning; however, wind gusts are forecast to stay between 15 and 30 mph.

  Isaías has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm with with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. Isaías is expected to restrengthen back into a Category 1 hurricane overnight Saturday as it approaches the southeast coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Treasure and Space Coasts remain likely. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Boca Raton to the Volusia and Flagler County line. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina. This is a breakdown on the timing and magnitude of potential hazards from Isaías, broken down into southeast, east-central, and northeast regions of the state: Southeast Florida Hurricane conditions are not expected in Miami or Fort Lauderdale, but possible only a few miles up I-95 in West Palm Beach. Wind gusts in excess of 74 mph will be possible from Merritt Island to south of West Palm Beach. Strong tropical storm force winds (58-73 mph) are possible along and west of I-95 from Titusville to Miami. Farther inland, tropical storm force winds between 39 and 57 mph will be possible to the edge of the Everglades. The heaviest rain from Isaías is likely to fall along the Treasure Coast, where two to four inches are expected with lesser amounts of one to three inches possible near Miami and Fort Lauderdale. Isaías is expected to exit South Florida by midday Sunday, with conditions returning to normal by Sunday night. East-Central Florida It is likely that Isaías will strengthen back into a Category 1 hurricane producing hurricane conditions near and east of the I-95 corridor or East-Central Florida. Wind gusts in excess of 74 mph will be possible immediately along the Space Coast from Merritt Island to Melbourne and points south. Strong tropical storm force winds (58-73 mph) are possible along the I-95 corridor from Daytona Beach to Titusville, and winds between 39 and 57 mph will be possible. Heavy rain is likely Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon. Rainfall accumulations of three to six inches are possible along the Space Coast, which could produce flash flooding. Rainfall amounts of one to three inches are possible west of the I-95 corridor to about the Florida Turnpike, including the Orlando metro area. Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the immediate coast. If Isaías takes more of a westward track and regains hurricane strength, storm surge inundation will likely be higher along the coast, and spread farther inland. Hazards from Isaías will diminish in Central Florida by Sunday evening, with near normal conditions expected to return Monday. Northeast Florida Tropical storm conditions will likely occur along the First Coast beginning Sunday night, with hurricane conditions possible farther south in coastal sections of Flagler County. Winds from Hurricane Isaías are expected to be strongest near the coast, where gusts up to 60 mph will be possible in the overnight hours. Winds of 30 to 50 mph are possible farther inland to about the I-95 corridor. The heaviest rain from Isaias is expected to stay offshore. However, one to three inches of rain is possible across Duval, St. Johns, Putnam, and Flagler counties. Storm surge flooding and river flooding will be possible along the immediate coast and the St. Johns River. In these locations, two to four inches of rain and one to three feet of storm surge inundation are possible. Rough surf and life threatening rip currents will exist along all area beaches. Conditions should begin to improve in Northeast Florida by midday Monday, as Isaías accelerates toward the Mid-Atlantic states.

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Ray Hawthorne
Megan Borowski