However Florida - Thursday June 2, 2022: The National Hurricane Center [NHC] in Miami has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for central and southern Florida as a tropical depression continues tracking northeast across the Gulf of Mexico towards Florida. That means the possibility of tropical storm-force winds of 39 MPH or greater are possible within the next 36 hours.
The tropical storm warning went into effect Friday morning for Miami, Sarasota, the Florida Keys, West Palm Beach, Melbourne, Dry Tortuga, Florida Bay and Lake Okeechobee, as well as along Florida's west coast, south of the middle of Longboat Key to Englewood, and the state's east coast, south of the Volusia-Brevard county line to Card Sound Bridge.
This disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later Friday, and make landfall along Florida's southwest coast near Naples early Saturday as it moves northeast across the state.
It's being called "Potential Tropical Cyclone 1" by the National Hurricane Center. That's a phrase used by the NHC to issue watches and warnings for a storm system that is expected to develop as it approaches land.
The NHC predicts Tropical Storm conditions across the Treasure Coast by Friday night, continuing through Saturday, before tapering off Sunday. Heavy rain will affect portions of central and south Florida throughout Friday evening and Saturday. Considerable flooding is possible across south Florida and the keys.
WUFT meteorologist Justin Ballard says we could see wind gusts over 50 MPH after the storm makes landfall, "but the potential for Florida rain is a bigger concern." The National Weather Service Office in Melbourne predicts 4 to 8 inches of rainfall along the Treasure Coast Saturday, with local amounts of up to 12 inches.
As of 2 p.m. EST Friday (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 86.4 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed starting later today. Heavy rains have already spread across much of southern Florida.
On the forecast track, the system should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight, across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
The 2 p.m. EST Friday update also states that flight data from aircraft tracker flights on Friday morning found little change in the organization of the disturbance.
Summary of the 2 p.m. EST status of Potential Tropical Cyclone 1:
Location - 22.6N 86.4W, 395 miles SW of Ft. Myers Florida
Maximum sustained winds - 40 MPH
Movement - NE at 5 MPH
Minimum Central Pressure - 1003 millibars or 29.62 inches
If "Potential Tropical Cyclone 1" becomes a tropical storm with winds in excess of 39 mph or greater later on Friday, it will be named 'Alex', the first named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season.
