Florida - Monday June 27, 2022: The National Hurricane Center is tracking five systems; two in the tropical Atlantic, two in the Eastern Pacific off Mexico's west coast, and one development in the Gulf of Mexico just south of Louisiana.
GULF of MEXICO and ATLANTIC
Tropical Weather Outlook - NWS National Hurricane Center Miami - 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022:
1. Northern Gulf of Mexico - Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico during the next few days. It has a low (10 percent) chance of formation through 48 hours and a low (20 percent) chance of formation in the next 5 days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic - A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. It has a near zero chance of formation through 48 hours and a low (20 percent) chance of formation in the next 5 days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
3. Central Tropical Atlantic - A tropical wave located about 900 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon.
Interests in the Windward Islands and along the northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of these areas later today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday. It has a high (70 percent) chance of formation through 48 hours and a high (90 percent) chance of formation in the next 5 days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
EASTERN PACIFIC
4. Tropical Storm Celia:
Tropical Storm Celia is weakening and heading northwest out into the Pacific and poses no threat to land. Despite not becoming a hurricane, Celia is now tied for the 5th longest-lasting June tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific.
Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 43 - NWS National Hurricane Center Miami - 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Celia appears to be deteriorating based on geostationary satellite imagery. The storm continues to have small bursts of convection on the western and southern portion of the circulation, however any significant convection in the northern semicircle has disappeared. A scatterometer pass over the inner core at 0430 UTC showed only a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, mostly in the northwest quadrant of the storm, with peak winds of only 35-40 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt to account for potential under sampling. Dynamic and statistical model guidance all forecast Celia to gradually weaken as the system moves over cooler waters and into a dry, stable environment. The
official forecast predicts the system will become a post-tropical remnant low by 36 h, when it will likely be devoid of deep convection, and dissipated within a few days.
The storm is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. A mid-level ridge extending over the eastern North Pacific is expected to continue steering Celia at this approximate speed and direction until the system dissipates. The NHC forecast is quite similar to the previous forecast advisory and remains within the tightly clustered model guidance.
5. Tropical Wave Off Southern Mexico and Guatemala:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles offshore of the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and a few thunderstorms. It too is tracking west north-west out into the Pacific and poses no threat to land.
Tropical Weather Outlook - NWS National Hurricane Center Miami - 500 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022:
1. Offshore of Southern Mexico: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles offshore of the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.