Florida - Monday August 21, 2023: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that as of Monday afternoon Tropical Storm Franklin was located over the eastern Caribbean Sea, south of Hispaniola. It is forecast to bring heavy rains to portions of the Dominican Republic and lesser amounts to Puerto Rico.
It is then expected to track north north east into the central Atlantic as it loses steam. The NHC expects to downgrade it by Wednesday.
A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has now been upgraded to Tropical Depression #9 and it should bring heavy rains to the Texas Coast by Tuesday morning.
Downgraded
- Tropical Storm Gert was downgraded to a Tropical Depression Monday afternoon. It is expected to run out of steam and dissipate by Tuesday afternoon.
- Tropical Storm Emily was also downgraded to a post-tropical storm. It was located a little over 1100 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
On the Horizon
Meanwhile, in the far eastern tropical Atlantic, off the west African coast, Disturbance #1 popped up Monday morning. It is given a 70% chance of formation within the next seven days.
None of these systems ever posed, or are expected to pose, a threat to Florida at this time.
Tropical Storm Franklin
Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto Rico through the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches, will be possible across portions of Hispaniola. These rains are likely to cause flash flooding across portions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to reach the southern coast of Hispaniola Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night.
LOCATION & MOVEMENT: At 5 p.m. EST Monday Tropical Storm Franklin was near 15.0 north and 70.1 west, 210 nautical miles south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. Franklin was moving toward the west, or 270 degrees, at 5 knots. It is expected to turn north overnight into Tuesday.
PRESSURE: Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb.
WINDS: Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Tropical storm-force winds are within 50 nautical miles of the center in the northeast quadrant.
SEAS: Maximum seas near the center are 19 ft.
COVECTION: Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 12N to 18N and between 62W and 70W.
Tropical Depression #9 in the Western Gulf of Mexico
Heavy rainfall is expected across south Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and this system may also produce areas of flash flooding and urban street flooding.
A Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued for areas along the Texas coast.
Residents in southern Texas and northern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings are likely to be issued later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Gert Downgraded to a Tropical Depression
The NHC has downgraded Tropical Storm Gert to a depression after wind shear weaken the system throughout Monday. It is expected to dissipate by Tuesday afternoon.
LOCATION & MOVEMENT: Tropical Storm Gert is centered near 16.7N 56.4W at 21/0900 UTC or 400 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 8 kt.
PRESSURE: Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
WINDS: Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
SEAS: Seas near the center are 11 ft.
Post-Tropical Storm Emily
LOCATION & MOVEMENT:
Post-tropical cyclone center was
located near 21.1 N and 41.9 W as of 5 a.m. Monday August 21, moving west-north-west or at 290 degrees at 8 KT
PRESSURE: Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
WINDS: Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
WAVES: Highest wave heights are 12 ft
CONVECTION: Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is displaced well north of the center.
Disturbance #2 - Eastern Tropical Atlantic - AL92
Showers and thunderstorms over the Cabo Verde Islands and portions of the tropical eastern Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
