Florida - Friday September 8, 2023: In a live 11:30 a.m. Friday storm update, National Hurricane Center Director Mike Brennan acknowledged that "there are some indications" that Hurricane Lee will turn north, into the western Atlantic, and continue north, well off the U.S. mainland, away from the east coast, after it passes north of Puerto Rico.
For much of the past week, a number of other forecasting agencies have generated computer models showing that the most likely track Lee would follow would be north and that it would not directly impact the U.S. mainland. The National Hurricane Center now agrees that is Lee's likely path as well, although they have not yet released a graphic showing that.
Here is the latest graphic from the South Florida Water Management district showing a variety of different tracks generated by other forecasting agencies.
Brennan also said Lee 's speed will slow significantly in the coming days and the storm is unlikely to reach north of Puerto Rico until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, two to three days later than earlier forecast.
In addition, Lee's wind speeds have eased. In the Hurricane Center's 5 a.m. Friday update the storm had reached a Category 5 level of strength with sustained winds of 165 mph. However in the 11 a.m Friday update the NHC said those wind speeds have eased back to a sustained level of 155 mph, returning Lee to Category 4 status.
The Hurricane Center says fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next few days, and Hurricane Lee may again gain additional strength. Either way, Lee is expected to remain a major hurricane through early next week.
The greatest concern now, said Brennan, is that Lee is producing huge 50 foot, or higher waves. That is generating swells that will disrupt marine interests and cause dangerous surf and rip currents along portions of the northeastern Caribbean, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and by Wednesday or Thursday of next week, those same dangers will begin to impact portions of the the U.S. east coast.
Hurricane Lee as of 11 a.m. Friday September 8
As of 11 a.m. EST Friday morning, the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 18.2 north, longitude 54.5 west.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph, with higher gusts. Earlier Lee reached sustained wind speeds of 165 mph, briefly rising to Category 5 statues. The storm however is now back to Category 4 status.
Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next few days, says the NHC. Lee could gain further strength again. Whether it does or not, the NHC says it will remain a powerful hurricane through early next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 millibars or 27.82 inches.
Lee continues to move in a west-northwesterly direction at about 13 mph. It is forecast to continue in that direction through early next week. However there will likely be a significant reduction in speed to between 6 to 7 mph.
On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early next week, and then turn north into the western Atlantic, well away from the U.S. east coast.
Swells generated by Lee are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Leeward Islands Friday, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the throughout the rest of this weekend.
These same dangerous surf and rip current conditions could begin along most of the U.S. East Coast as soon as Sunday.