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NHC: Philippe Brings Flooding Rain Over Portions of the Northern Leeward Islands


Florida - Tuesday October 3, 2023: The outer bands of Tropical Storm Philippe have been dumping flooding rains over portions of the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands.

However the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts that the eye is expected to pass north of the Leeward Islands today, and Philippe is then forecast to turn north by Wednesday.

At this time, Philippe poses no threat to Florida or the rest of the U.S., its predicted to track north into the central sub-tropical Atlantic starting tomorrow..

Tropical Storm Philippe

At 7 a.m. EST, the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 63.5 West. Philippe is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph, and this general motion should continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday.

On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to move north of the Leeward Islands today. However, the strongest winds and heaviest rains will likely occur in the islands to the south of the center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two, but Philippe could begin to strengthen after midweek.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles primarily to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 millibars or 29.56 inches.

Watches and Warnings

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua has been discontinued.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

* Barbuda
* Anguilla

-A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts into early Wednesday:

* Barbuda southward to Dominica: 4 to 8 inches

* Rest of Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands: 3 to 5 inches

* Virgin Islands: 1 to 3 inches

This rainfall is expected to result in scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area and possible within the watch area today. Strong gusty winds are also likely elsewhere in the Leeward Islands today.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.