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NHC: Tropical Storm Sean Forms; But "Not Likely to Strengthen Much"


Florida - Wednesday October 11, 2023: Tropical Storm Sean formed in the eastern tropical Atlantic overnight, but the National Hurricane Center reports that "it is not likely to strengthen much."

Tropical Storm Sean - Advisory Number 2

As of 4 a.m. EST, the center of Tropical Storm Sean was located near latitude 10.3 north and longitude 33.1 west.

Sean is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast during the next few days.

Satellite intensity estimates indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Little net change in strength is forecast during the next 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 millibars or 29.71 inches.

Sean could intensify a bit more during the next day or so before increasing southerly shear affects the core of the cyclone. Some hints of this shear can already be seen in cirrus cloud motions from convective activity northwest of the tropical cyclone.

Thereafter, moderate-to-strong shear is expected to generally cancel out the enhancing effects of a relatively moist and unstable environment, leading to little net change for a few days. By the end of the week, while the shear could weaken, global models are generally showing an influx of drier mid-level air along with upper-level convergence, which would typically weaken any associated deep convection.

Many of the regional hurricane models, however, actually show some strengthening at long range, but they have been inconsistent at that time frame. The NHC forecast leans more on the global models for now, similar to the previous forecast and the model consensus, and continues to show Sean becoming a remnant low on day 5.