Florida - Wednesday October 18, 2023: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that an area of low pressure east of the Lesser Antilles has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression as it approaches the Leeward Islands.
Regardless of development, this system has the potential to bring gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and flooding to portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning Friday.
However computer models continue to suggest this system will turn north well before reaching the Florida peninsula.
East of the Windward Islands - Invest 94
Showers and thunderstorms range across a broad area of low pressure about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands. The low currently measures 1008 millibars. The system continues to show signs of organization, however it has not yet developed a well-defined surface circulation.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is evident on satellite imagery from 5-degrees to 14-degrees north, and between 43-degrees and 51-degrees west.
Strong to near gale-force winds are occurring in all quadrants except the southwest quadrant. Seas of 8-12 feet are occurring between 9-degrees and 21-degrees north, and between 42-degrees and 52-degrees west.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the western tropical Atlantic toward the Lesser Antilles.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system, and watches may be required for some of the islands later today.
Regardless of development, this system has the potential to bring gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and flooding to portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
