East Central Florida - Thursday March 28, 2024: A cold front that sits across north Florida this morning will make its way east-southeast across central Florida this morning and into the afternoon, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Melbourne.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast to develop this morning to the north of I-4, before rain and storm chances increase to the south into the mid- morning and early afternoon. Rain chances dwindle into the afternoon as the cold front moves offshore.
Isolated strong storms will have the potential to produce wind gusts up to 40-45mph. Small hail and cloud to ground lightning strikes are also possible during the mid-morning and early afternoon, especially south of Melbourne along the Treasure Coast and inland.
Outside of lightning storms, winds are forecast to increase and gust up to 30-35mph from the west-northwest this afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 70s to low 80s with cloudy skies becoming mostly sunny this afternoon.
A large, long period swell will continue to produce a High Risk for life-threatening rip currents at area beaches. Entering the surf is not advised.
Small Craft should exercise caution this morning for southwest winds at 15-20kt and seas up to 4 to 6 ft. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect at 11 am for the offshore waters (20-60nm) and at 2 pm for the nearshore waters for north winds at 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 30-35kts, in addition to, seas up to 4-7ft nearshore and up to 7-10ft offshore.
THUNDERSTORM IMPACT
Showers and isolated storms will develop along and ahead of a passing cold front, pushing east to northeast across the area and offshore through this morning and early afternoon. Any storms may be able to produce strong wind gusts up to 40 to 45 mph, small hail, lightning strikes and heavy downpours. Greatest potential for any isolated stronger storms will be near to south of a line from Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee from late this morning and early afternoon.
HIGH WIND IMPACT
Breezy to windy conditions will develop today behind a passing cold front. Winds will become northwest, with speeds between 15 to 25 mph, and gusts at times up to 35 mph possible from late morning through this afternoon.
RIP CURRENT IMPACT
Increasing north to northwest winds behind a passing cold front will produce a strong southward flowing longshore current today, with lingering swells also generating a moderate risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches. Longshore currents can push swimmers into deeper water unexpectedly, making them more susceptible to rip currents. Entering the surf is not advised.
MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT
Isolated storms that develop along and ahead of the passing cold front will be capable of producing wind gusts around 35 knots as they shift east-northeast across the area and offshore through the morning and early afternoon.
WIND AND SEA IMPACT
Poor boating conditions this morning will become hazardous across the coastal waters as winds increase with a passing cold front over the area. West to southwest winds up to 15 to 20 knots this morning will become north to northwest around 20 to 25 knots into the afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 35 knots will be possible over the offshore waters during the afternoon and evening hours.
Seas will build up to 6 to 8 feet offshore through the afternoon, and up to 7 to 10 feet across the waters into tonight.
A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect offshore by late morning and expands to include all of the waters at 2 PM this afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory will then continue across the entire coastal waters into tonight.
FIRE WEATHER IMPACT
Breezy to windy northwest winds and lowering relative humidity values into the afternoon will lead to an increase in fire sensitivity today.
THROUGH the WEEKEND
Northerly winds will gradually diminish into tomorrow, but boating conditions will remain poor to hazardous Friday into Friday night as seas remain elevated, especially across the gulf stream waters.
Much drier air will produce low relative humidity values during the afternoon hours on Friday and into the weekend, leading to sensitive fire weather conditions.