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NWS Melbourne: Marginal Risk of Strong Storms Along the Treasure Coast This Afternoon and Evening

Despite the  diminishing severe threat, gusty winds will remain possible as storms move through the Treasure Coast this evening.
NWS Melbourne
Gusty winds will remain possible as storms move through the Treasure Coast this evening.

East Central Florida - Thursday April 11, 2024: A cold front pushing south down the Florida peninsula today is expected to bring strong to severe storms across central Florida, however by the time the front reaches the Treasure Coast the risk will have been substantially reduced, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

The light-green part of the below graphic highlights an area south of I-4 from Melbourne to northern Okeechobee County which is considered to be only at "Marginal Risk," for stormy weather this afternoon and this evening.

However, despite the diminishing threat of severe storms as the front moves south, gusty winds will remain possible as storms move through the Treasure Coast this afternoon and this evening.

NWS Melbourne

Scattered to numerous showers with embedded lightning storms will accompany a cold front moving southward through the area this afternoon. A few storms could be strong to severe, especially along and north of the I-4 corridor. The main threats will be wind gusts up to 60 to 65 mph, heavy downpours, and lightning strikes. However, small hail and a tornado cannot be ruled out.

Storms will be moving to the northeast at around 50 to 60 mph.

The chance for severe weather will diminish as the front moves southward. However, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas along and north of the I-4 corridor in a Slight Risk for severe weather today. Areas south of I-4 to a line from

Southwesterly winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph later this morning into this afternoon across the area, outside of any showers or storms. Wind gusts to around 40 mph are forecast. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 AM to 8PM today.

Offshore-moving showers and storms along a front this afternoon will be capable of wind gusts in excess of 34 knots. A few gusts up to 50 to 55 knots will be possible. Storms will be moving northeast at 45 to 55 knots.

Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions into tonight. Southerly winds 20 to 25 knots nearshore and up to 25 to 30 knots offshore today.

Gusts to gale force are forecast offshore north of Sebastian Inlet, with occasional gusts to gale force for the offshore Treasure Coast waters.

Seas 6 to 8 feet offshore and 4 to 6 feet nearshore through the daytime hours. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the nearshore zones, as well as the offshore waters south of Sebastian Inlet through 8 PM, with a Gale Warning in effect for the offshore Brevard and Volusia County waters. Conditions will begin to improve this evening, but remain poor to hazardous.

A waterspout cannot be ruled out in offshore-moving storms this afternoon from around Melbourne northward.

There will be a Moderate Risk of rip currents at area beaches today. Also, gusty southerly winds will produce a strong, northward flowing longshore current, which can push swimmers into deeper water unexpectedly, making them more susceptible to dangerous rip currents. Always swim near a lifeguard.

Near-critical fire weather conditions today, with sustained southwesterly winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 35 to 40 mph or higher. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 AM through 8 PM for the entire area.

Dispersions this afternoon will be excellent and control issues are likely. Well above normal temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s across much of the area will contribute to minimum relative humidity values as low as 45 percent south of I-4.

At least a moderate risk of rip currents will continue through late this week.

Poor boating conditions are forecast Friday night into Saturday evening, especially across the offshore waters, as northerly winds briefly increase, leading to building seas.

Fire sensitive weather conditions are forecast to continue into next week, as much drier air sweeps into the state.