South Florida’s 2026 rainy season: Very different between coasts

South Florida's 2026 rainy season delivered dramatically different outcomes across the region. While some communities experienced soaking thunderstorms and impressive rainfall totals, others struggled to receive enough rain to keep pace with seasonal averages. From Miami and Fort Lauderdale to Naples and Fort Myers, the season demonstrated just how uneven Florida's summertime rainfall can be. The official South Florida rainy season runs from May 15 through October 15, when warm temperatures, tropical moisture, and daily sea-breeze interactions typically produce frequent showers and thunderstorms.

This year, however, the rain was anything but evenly distributed. One of the most striking contrasts occurred along South Florida's Atlantic coast. According to the National Weather Service's South Florida Water Management District rainy-season summary, Miami International Airport recorded just 27.80 inches of rain between May 15 and October 15, finishing 18.45 inches below normal.

That represents roughly 60% of the rainfall Miami would typically receive during the five-month period. The shortage was particularly noticeable in June, when Miami recorded only 1.87 inches of rain compared with a normal 10.51 inches. Below-normal rainfall continued during July, August, and September, preventing the city from overcoming its substantial seasonal deficit.

By October 24, Miami's year-to-date rainfall stood at 39.52 inches, approximately 34% below normal. Fort Lauderdale, meanwhile, experienced a dramatically different outcome. After a particularly dry start to the summer, rainfall increased substantially during September. Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport recorded an extraordinary 22.34 inches of rain during September alone, compared with the month's normal rainfall of 8.02 inches. That made September 2026 Fort Lauderdale's wettest September on record. The exceptional rainfall helped transform what had been a dry summer into a slightly wetter-than-normal rainy season. By October 15, Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport had accumulated 39.80 inches of rainfall for the official season, finishing 1.25 inches above normal. Just a relatively short distance south, Miami remained significantly below normal.

The drought monitor also stayed very active, showing areas in extreme drought during what would typically be the year's wettest months. The rainy season ended with no areas in "red," meaning the worst drought categories eased across the entire state. Slivers of severe drought remained focused over western Miami-Dade and western Central Florida.

Southwest Florida with rainfall shortages.

Across the peninsula, Southwest Florida also faced rainfall challenges.

Fort Myers saw a particularly dry June, receiving only 3.80 inches compared with a normal 9.66 inches. July brought temporary relief, with 9.70 inches of rainfall, slightly above the monthly average. However, rainfall fell below normal again in August and September.

Farther south, Naples also experienced inconsistent rainfall throughout the summer. At Naples Municipal Airport, the official rainy-season total reached 33.35 inches, approximately 3.48 inches below normal. Although thunderstorms brought occasional heavy downpours, they did not close the season's rainfall deficit.

The differences between Southwest Florida and the Atlantic coast illustrate how regional weather patterns can produce very different rainfall outcomes during the same season.

Selected rainfall totals for the official May 15–October 15, 2026 rainy season:

Source: National Weather Service Miami–South Florida / South Florida Water Management District, 2026 wet-season rainfall summary.

Why was rainfall so uneven?

South Florida's rainy season depends heavily on local atmospheric conditions. Sea breezes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts often move inland in the afternoon, interacting with tropical moisture and other atmospheric boundaries. When these boundaries collide, thunderstorms can develop rapidly, sometimes producing intense rainfall over relatively small areas. But those storms don't always form in the same places.

A community experiencing repeated afternoon thunderstorms may accumulate several additional inches of rain over a few weeks, while another location just miles away receives relatively little precipitation. Prevailing winds, tropical disturbances, and the amount of moisture available in the atmosphere can also influence rainfall distribution. Fort Lauderdale's exceptionally wet September shows how concentrated rainfall over a short period can dramatically change seasonal totals. Meanwhile, Miami experienced a persistent shortage despite being in the same broader metropolitan region.

Why rainy-season rainfall matters

South Florida relies heavily on its summer rainfall. The rainy season replenishes groundwater supplies, maintains canal and reservoir levels, supports the Everglades, and prepares the region for the typically drier winter months. When rainfall falls significantly below normal, those deficits can become especially important heading into the dry season. Even communities that experience frequent thunderstorms can finish the summer with below-normal precipitation if the storms are too brief, too localized, or too infrequent. That was one of the defining features of the 2026 season.

Looking ahead to South Florida's dry season

With the traditional rainy season ending October 15, South Florida is entering a time of year generally characterized by lower humidity, fewer afternoon thunderstorms, and less frequent rainfall. But the transition to the dry season does not erase the rainfall deficits accumulated during the summer. Communities that finished the rainy season substantially below normal may remain sensitive to extended periods without meaningful precipitation. For Miami and portions of Southwest Florida, rainfall during the coming months will help determine how water conditions evolve heading into 2027.

Meanwhile, Fort Lauderdale's remarkable September reminds us that a few exceptionally wet weeks can dramatically change a location's seasonal rainfall picture. The biggest takeaway from South Florida's 2026 rainy season is simple: Plenty of thunderstorms doesn't necessarily mean enough rain. This year, where the storms developed mattered just as much as how often they occurred.

With an El Niño pattern forecast to persist through the winter months, the winter season could be wetter than average. When El Niño is present in the winter months, low-pressure systems are more likely to travel over the southern half of the United States, bringing stronger cold fronts that often produce more prolific storms with higher rainfall. This does not mean we will get rainfall every day, but rather that once the winter season ends and data is analyzed, it will more likely show that actual rainfall is higher than the season average.