NHC 5 PM Sunday: Ian is Forecast to Become a Hurricane on Monday and a Major Hurricane on Tuesday
Florida - Sunday September 25, 2022: The National Hurricane Center predicts that Tropical Storm Ian will become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Some strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday.
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami -5 PM EDT Sun Sep 25
LOCATION: At 5 PM Sunday September 25 the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 16.2 North and longitude 80.3 West about 220 miles south southeast of Grand Cayman and about 495 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
TRACK: On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
MOVEMENT: Ian was moving west- northwest or 300 degrees at 12 mph A turn toward the northwest is expected Sunday night, followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed.
WINDS: Maximum sustained winds were at 45 mph with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.
PRESSURE: Maximum center pressure was at 1003 millibars or 29.62 inches.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:
* Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through Wednesday morning.
* Florida Panhandle: Heavy rainfall may affect North Florida, the Florida Panhandle and the Southeast Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
* Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.
* Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida given already saturated conditions.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night and early Tuesday.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.
* East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
* Florida Keys, FL including Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
* Florida Bay...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
The following Watches and Warnings had been issued as of 5 PM Sunday, September 25:
GRAND CAYMAN: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for. Grand Cayman and the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisia
*A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
CUBA: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for. the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
*A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
LOWER KEYS: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas.
CAYMAN ISLANDS: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman on Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected early Tuesday.
* A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
FLORIDA: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the lower Florida Keys by Tuesday.
CAYMAN ISLANDS: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman on Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected early Tuesday.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday.
CUBA: Ian is expected to produce significant Tropical Wind and Storm Surge impacts in western Cuba.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday.