Treasure Coast - Monday November 7, 2022: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of Florida as sub-tropical storm Nicole approaches. The NHC expects Nicole will become a large storm that will have widespread impacts along Florida's east coast, as well as across the southeastern United States coast during much of the upcoming week.
The current forecast brings Nicole close to hurricane strength within 60-72 hours while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday and and then starts its approach towards the east coast of Florida.
Regardless of its exact path the NHC forecasts a prolonged period of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf and rip currents, as well as beach erosion along much of Florida's east coast by Thursday.
Nicole is forecast to acquire tropical characteristics in a couple of days.
SUB-TROPICAL STORM NICOLE - Monday Nov. 7 as of 10 a.m.
A well-defined area of low pressure located about 650 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce gale-force winds, but the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced to the east of the low's center due to strong upper-level winds.
These conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for development today but may briefly become more favorable on Tuesday, and a short-lived tropical storm could still form as the system begins to move
northward and then northeastward at about 10 mph. The low is then forecast to merge with a cold front by the middle part of this week.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
LOCATION: Recently developed Subtropical Storm Nicole was centered near 25.5N and 68.5W as of 4 a.m. Monday morning. That was about 480 nm E of the Northwestern Bahamas.
MOVEMENT: It was moving NNW at 12 kt. Nicole is expected to make a sharp re-curvature toward the north and northeast on days 4 and 5 in the vicinity of Florida. The system should turn northwestward and slow down later today, followed by a turn toward the west and west-southwest tonight through Tuesday night.
WINDS: Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated over the next few days.
PRESSURE: Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 millibars with
SEAS: Seas are peaking near 15 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 20N to 31N between 55W and 70W.