Florida - Wednesday April 12, 2023: Despite much wetter than normal conditions during the Fall of 2022, largely due to Hurricanes Ian and Nicole, rainfall during the Winter and into the early Spring has been well below normal across east central Florida. Precipitation amounts since the start of the year have only been between 1 to 4 inches for many locations across the region, which is roughly around 4 to 6 inches below normal.
These rainfall totals also rank within the top 10 driest starts to the year on record at all of the primary climate sites across east central Florida. The much drier than normal conditions combined with periods of well above normal temperatures, especially over the past few months, has led to developing moderate to severe drought conditions that have expanded across east central Florida.
From the United States Drought Monitor issued on March 30th, 2023:
* Severe (D2) Drought Conditions exist from near to northwest of the I-4 corridor through Lake County, and also near to south of line from Lake Kissimmee to Palm Bay through Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast.
* Moderate (D1) Drought Conditions exist across the remainder of east central Florida, including much of Brevard and northern Osceola counties, as well as coastal Volusia County.
Summary of Impacts
Agricultural Impacts: There has been an increase in reports of poor to very poor pasture conditions across Okeechobee and Osceola counties, as well as across the Treasure Coast. Plant stress, poor crop conditions and drying up of ponds and creeks has also been reported in some spots.
Soil Moisture Conditions: Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values continue to rise across the region and are higher than normal for this time of year. As of April 1st, 2023, KBDI values average around 450-499 across Volusia County, around 500-549 across Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola and Brevard counties, around 550-599 across Okeechobee and Indian River counties, and up to 600-649 across St. Lucie and Martin counties. This scale runs from zero (saturated) to 800 (extreme dryness).
Groundwater Conditions: The latest groundwater conditions from the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) as of March 27th show water levels are below to much below normal for this time of year for several observation locations across the upper and lower Kissimmee River basins, as well as through Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast.
River and Stream Flow Conditions: The latest seven day average streamflow from the USGS as of Saturday, April 1st indicates values range from normal (25-75 percent of normal) to below normal (10-24 percent of normal) across much of the region for this time of year.
However, a few locations are showing levels that are much below normal (less than 10 percent of normal) for this time of year.
Fire Danger Hazards: According to the National Interagency Fire Center, the potential for significant wildland fires is above normal for all of east central Florida. Burn bans are currently in effect at this time for Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Brevard counties.
Climate Summary
Here are the latest rainfall statistics for select sites across east central Florida:
Precipitation and Temperature Outlook
The current forecast indicates above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall will continue through at least early April. The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, which cover the period from April 6th through the 14th, indicate higher chances for above normal temperatures and for near to above normal precipitation across much of the area.