Florida - Wednesday July 31, 2024: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to watch a large tropical wave bundled around the Leeward Islands where it is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The Hurricane Center still has it on a track that will eventually bring it over Florida. However, whether it will be just a rain event when it arrives, or something stronger, is uncertain. Forecasters continue to give it a 60% chance of development over the next 7-days.
The Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion page on the NHC website projects that this strong tropical wave, and attendant winds and seas, will:
- shift to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thursday
- will continue to move northwest across the Bahamas Friday and Friday night
- then move north-northeast of the Bahamas Saturday and Sunday.
"There is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week in the vicinity of the Bahamas or Florida over the weekend," states the NHC forecast.
Meanwhile, the National Weather Service Office in Melbourne takes note of this system in their daily Hazardous Weather Outlook for East-Central Florida which advises:
"A large tropical wave over the central Atlantic will move west to northwest and there is a chance of tropical development with this system late this week as it approaches the Greater Antilles or Bahamas. Due to uncertainty, it remains too early to say what impacts, if any, could result from this system for interests across east central Florida this weekend and early next week. "
Residents are advised to continue to closely monitor the forecast over the coming days for updates on this system.
NHC - Tropical Wave Approaching the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas
A large tropical wave located near the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a broad area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development while the system moves generally west-northwestward over the Greater Antilles and towards the Bahamas. A tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, or near Florida.
Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.