We are monitoring the evolution of a tropical disturbance labeled Invest 95L. It is currently located between Africa and the Caribbean, and it is moving fast to the west-northwest. Environmental conditions are becoming more favorable for this tropical wave to develop into a tropical system, with windshear decreasing as it travels over warm waters. The next name on the list is Jerry.
By Thursday, the system will be near the northeastern Caribbean and making a northward turn. Most models have this system staying a safe distance away from the northeastern Caribbean, over 400 miles away, and making a northward turn on Thursday, remaining as a fish storm without impacting the United States. Also, most of its convection and strongest winds will stay focused either north or to the right (after it makes the northward turn) of the center, which benefits the small Caribbean islands.
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (Monday, October 6, 2025)
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 6, 2025
NHC Hurricane Specialist Andrew Hagen provides an update on the tropics for Monday, October 6th.
Visit https://t.co/sYVOB3gScg for the latest. pic.twitter.com/NaGjWhgrGB
This system is expected to become a tropical storm, possibly a hurricane, late this week as it travels over and remains over the Atlantic waters. It could bring large swells and choppy seas to the northern portions of the Lesser Antilles between Wednesday and Friday.
A disturbance in the Caribbean.
A disorganized tropical system is moving over the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night into Tuesday. Once it emerges over the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf, it has a slight chance and a short window to develop into a tropical system. Since the system has little time before it approaches the southern portion of the state of Veracruz, it will bring torrential rains, which may lead to landslides and flooding, even if the system doesn't fully develop. It is not expected to turn toward the U.S.
Anything else coming?
There is a chance for more tropical waves to emerge from Africa in the coming weeks. Fortunately, we are noticing a pattern across the United States, where more fronts, possibly stronger ones, travel from west to east, which tends to sweep tropical systems away. During this time of year, unless a front becomes stationary and leaves enough energy behind to develop a close-to-land tropical system, African waves that do get to grow tend to stay over the open Atlantic.
We should monitor any lingering front closely and be aware that if a system were to develop from a front, then we could potentially have less time ot prepare.