The same frontal boundary that will be responsible for temperatures plunging below zero, with wind chills as cold as negative 50 degrees across the nation’s heartland, will reach the Sunshine State by the start of the upcoming workweek. While the boundary will help induce a noticeable shot of cold air, Floridians will miss out on most of the dangerous conditions.
Instead of lows bottoming out in the mid-40s along the I-10 corridor and the mid-50s along the I-4 corridor, as is typical for mid-December, temperature readings are expected to drop into the 20s and 30s across North Florida, with 40s and low 50s across Central Florida.
While the chill may feel substantial, it will not be as cold as it could be.
Historical record lows for the date sit near 20 degrees across parts of North Florida and around the 30-degree mark in Central Florida, meaning the upcoming cold spell will not be record-breaking.
Gusty winds will make conditions feel even colder, especially from Sunday evening through Monday morning, when wind chill values may run as much as 10 degrees colder than the actual air temperature.
The combination of cold temperatures and windy conditions could prompt some National Weather Service offices along the northern Gulf Coast to issue Cold Weather Advisories.
A Cold Weather Advisory is issued for dangerously cold conditions that could pose hazards, especially to humans and pets.
Of the “7 Ps” of cold weather precautions - people, pets, plants, pipes, pools, protecting vehicles and practicing fire safety - pipes and pools should escape this cold snap without any issues.
The cold weather alerts will likely only be in effect for Panhandle communities, as most other locales across the peninsula will be somewhat moderated by the warm ocean water.
Forecast models show the timing of the coldest temperatures will vary slightly across the state.
For communities north of Interstate 4, the coldest morning is expected to occur Monday, with temperatures dipping a bit lower on Tuesday morning for areas farther south in the peninsula.
It is also important to note that the freezing line is not expected to reach Central Florida. Its southern extent should be limited to communities along the I-10 corridor, including Pensacola, Tallahassee and Jacksonville.
Why isn’t Florida in the bullseye of the Arctic air?
Florida will miss out on the record-breaking cold for several reasons, one of which is the trajectory of the Arctic air mass.
The coldest air is typically found beneath the center of a strong ridge of high pressure, and in this case, the ridge will remain positioned well north of Florida, keeping the core of the cold locked across the Plains and Midwest.
Additionally, the air mass moving into Florida will travel over the Plains, where snow cover has been limited.
Snow tends to act as a conveyor belt for cold air, helping preserve and transport it farther south.
Finally, a wind shift out of a more easterly direction - hours after the arrival of the cold air - will help moderate temperatures and prevent the mercury from dropping even further.
Looking beyond the early-week chill, the overall weather pattern appears to favor milder conditions ahead of the holidays, keeping additional cold air outbreaks away from the state.
