Is it Christmas yet? That's what the calendar says... but it sure doesn't feel like it. Surprisingly, this time is just a "Florida thing"; Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will be warm across much of the United States, especially across the Central Plains, where temperatures will be up to 35 degrees above average for this time of year. For example, the Texas Panhandle will flirt with mid-80s highs, while lows will be in the low to mid-60s from Texas to the Tennessee River Valley. Many areas will experience, if not the warmest Christmas, one of the warmest on record.
Longyearbyen, Svalbard, where local legend places 🎅Santa’s workshop, is looking more ♨️toasty than☃️frosty for this time of year.
— Climate Central (@ClimateCentral) December 18, 2025
Climate change may have Santa breaking a sweat, and the sleigh runway could be a little… slushy. pic.twitter.com/Nk86c7ZmA1
A Climate Central analysis shows that this unusual holiday warmth, running 20°F to 35°F above average, is at least two to three times more likely to occur due to human-caused carbon pollution.
CSI levels of 5—the highest possible—are forecast in portions of Missouri and across the Southwest and Mexico, indicating an exceptional climate-influenced event.
The unusual warmth will also take over the Sunshine State. A high-pressure system will "protect" Florida from any fronts, but it also means more sunshine than showers and more warmth overall. Temperatures on the afternoon of Christmas Day will range between 7 and 15 degrees above average across the Panhandle, hitting the mid to upper 70s. Central Florida, along the I-4 corridor, will likely reach the upper 70s, which places cities like Tampa and Orlando about 6 degrees above average. South Florida will have the highest temperatures closest to average for this time of year, but still about 3 degrees above normal. Miami is forecast to reach 81 degrees, while Fort Myers is forecast to reach 82 degrees, both 6 degrees above average.
2022: A memorably cold Christmas... that maybe most won't remember
In recent years, Christmas Day has been trending warmer, but that doesn't mean we haven't had sporadic cold spells. Christmas 2022 was very cold across Florida, especially South Florida, where children opened their gifts with an outside temperature of 45 degrees that morning, and the clouds kept the high at 50 degrees. (Very cold under South Florida standards!)
On Christmas Day 2022, Gainesville woke up to 22°F, and the high only reached 48°F. While parts of the Space Coast reported sleet, the Orlando Area only stayed in the mid-40s that same Christmas.
But 2022 was the exception, not the rule. It was an extremely rare Christmas, followed by extreme heat in subsequent seasons and by warming winters since then.
Christmas forecast and sneak-peek at New Year's
Although Christmas will be warmer than usual, there is hope for New Year's, as long-term models indicate a cooldown just in time to ring in 2026. Don't put away those outfits you may have planned to wear for Christmas; they may come in handy next week. If you haven't planned for that yet, this is a good time to consider a jacket you might need for next week.
Christmas Eve will feature mostly stable weather across Florida, with partly clear skies and patchy fog likely developing over the extreme western portion of the Panhandle and interior areas of North Florida. Temperatures around 9 p.m. should be between the upper 50s and low 60s along the I-10 corridor. At the same time, Central Florida, from the Treasure Coast through the Southwest Florida region, will be around the mid-60s, and the Metro areas of southeast Florida will be in the low 70s.
Christmas Day will be mostly sunny across Florida, with uniform highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
A strong cold front could begin moving south early next week, bringing a mass of cold air across Florida just in time to close out 2025. As of now, the cold front could get a very cold New Year's Eve morning, but of course, timing could slightly be shifted, forward or back, as we are still a week away. We will monitor this closely and bring you updates throughout the weekend.
