With the first major seasonal outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season now released, forecasters are analyzing past years to determine whether similar atmospheric and oceanic patterns can offer clues about what may lie ahead.
These similar seasons are known as “analog years,” when factors such as sea surface temperatures, wind patterns and atmospheric stability closely resemble expected conditions.
By examining analog seasons, forecasters can get a better sense on how active or quiet an upcoming hurricane season might be.
According to experts at Colorado State University, the 2026 hurricane season may best compare with years such as 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 because of an impending El Niño event.
El Niño patterns are typically associated with stronger upper-level winds over the Atlantic, which can disrupt developing tropical systems, making it more difficult for cyclones to organize and intensify.
Additionally, El Niños often lead to slightly cooler ocean temperatures in key development regions across the Atlantic basin.
Averaging this year's four analog seasons yields roughly 13 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes, which is slightly less active than average season.
In 2026, CSU is calling for 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, which mirrors the analog average counts.
Because of less favorable conditions and reduced accumulated cyclone energy - otherwise known as ACE - landfall probabilities in 2026 are expected to be significantly below the long-term average and at their lowest levels since the 2015.
In 2015, no hurricanes made landfall along the U.S. coastline, but there were impacts from two tropical storms.
Tropical Storm Ana made landfall in South Carolina in May, and Tropical Storm Bill moved ashore in Texas in June, with neither cyclone producing significant damage.
The quietest of the four analog seasons was 2009, when only nine named storms formed, including three hurricanes, as a robust El Niño led to significant wind shear across the basin.
More recently, the 2023 season also exhibited characteristics of an El Niño-influenced year, but the setup was rather complex.
While wind shear across the basin was elevated at times, water temperatures in the Atlantic broke records, which contributed to a busy season.
A total of 20 named storms formed, including seven hurricanes, making it an above-average year despite the on-going El Niño.
This included Hurricane Idalia, which made landfall along Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 3 cyclone, producing a historic storm surge for the region.
Another notable hurricane that formed during the analog years was Hurricane Joaquin in 2015, which devastated islands in the Bahamas and led to the sinking of the El Faro cargo ship with 33 crew members aboard.
As the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season draws closer, experts at CSU and NOAA will continue to refine their outlooks, with government forecasters expected to release their forecast in late May.
