Florida - Tuesday May 24, 2022: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season which, for the 7th consecutive year, forecasts yet another season of above-average hurricane activity.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
Officially, the hurricane season begins next week on Wednesday June 1 and it lasts until November 30.
For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA expects a range of between 14 and 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher; 6 to 10 of those storms could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. That includes 3 to 6 major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5 strength with winds of 111 mph or higher.
NOAA says it has 70% confidence in those predicted ranges.
The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season; warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds; and an enhanced West African monsoon.
An enhanced West African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons. The way in which climate change impacts the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is a continuous area of study for NOAA scientists.
“Anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the remnants of a storm system,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready now by visiting Ready.gov and Listo.gov for preparedness tips, and by downloading the FEMA App to make sure you are receiving emergency alerts in real-time.”
Stay tuned to WQCS throughout the hurricane season for updates on tropical storms that may affect the Treasure Coast.
The first named storm of the season will be Alex.
Additionally, NOAA has enhanced the following products and services this hurricane season:
- To improve the understanding and prediction of how hurricanes intensify, NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab and Pacific Marine Environmental Lab will operate five Saildrone uncrewed surface vehicles during the peak of the 2022 hurricane season and coordinate for the first time with uncrewed ocean gliders, small aircraft drone systems, and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft to measure the ocean, atmosphere and areas where they meet.
- The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Modeling System and Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, which have shown significant skill improvements in terms of storm track and intensity forecasts, have been successfully transitioned to the newest version of the Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System, allowing for uninterrupted operational forecasts.
- The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) has been experimentally extended from three to five days of lead time, giving more notice of rainfall-related flash flooding risks from tropical storms and hurricanes. The ERO forecasts and maps the probability of intense rainfall that could lead to flash flooding within 25 miles of a given point.
- In June, NOAA will enhance an experimental graphic that depicts the Peak Storm Surge Forecast when storm surge watches or warnings are in effect. Upgrades include an updated disclaimer and color coding that illustrates the peak storm surge inundation forecast at the coast. This tool is currently only available in the Atlantic basin.
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast.