Port St. Lucie - Monday, August 29, 2022: As of 2 pm Monday, August 29, The National Hurricane Center had not raised the development prospects for Disturbance 1 which they've been highlighting for the past few days. It still has a 50% of development within 48 hours, and 80% within the next 5 days.
Central Tropical Atlantic - Disturbance One
A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive,
some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week.
Currently fresh to strong winds and seas of up to 11 ft are associated with this broad area of low pressure. This system is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that covers the waters from 15N to 19N between 42W and 46W, and from 12N to 14N between 47W and 52W.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
