Florida - Tuesday August 30, 2022: The National Hurricane Center's 2 pm Tuesday outlook for disturbance one is little changed from Monday. It still shows a medium to high chance of formation for Disturbance One in the central tropical Atlantic.
Central Tropical Atlantic - Disturbance 1
A broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This wave is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.
Scattered to moderate and isolated strong convection has been detected from 09N to 18N between 41W and 60W. A recent scatterometer pass found an elongated circulation with fresh to strong NE winds over the northern semicircle of the low, with seas likely peaking near 10 ft.
Some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 kt, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
There is a second development trailing behind Disturbance One just off the west coast of Africa.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic - Disturbance Two
A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is located off the west coast of Africa. Some gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days.
By late this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development. Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
