Florida - Wednesday August 31, 2022: As of 8 am Wednesday morning the National Hurricane Center had raised the development prospects for a central tropical Atlantic wave from 50% yesterday to 60% within the next 48 hours.
Central Tropical Atlantic Disturbance 1
This disturbance covers a broad area of low pressure measured at 1007 millibars around 15N and 50W, several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
This is a slow moving tropical wave heading west at around 5 knots. It is producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity, and there is scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 08N to 18N between 47W and 55W.
Fresh to strong winds are noted in the northern and eastern quadrants. Seas are peaking near 10 ft north of the low.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days.
The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
There are two other systems the Hurricane Center has highlighted, one in the northern Atlantic, and the other in the far eastern tropical Atlantic off the African Coast.
All three can be seen in the satellite image below.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic - Disturbance 2
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands have become slightly better organized.
Some gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days. By late this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development.
Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic - Disturbance 3
An area of low pressure has formed along a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system drifts generally eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
