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HUB Poll Shows Competitive Statewide Races

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Progress Florida and Florida Watch are collectively known as - The Florida Communications and Research Hub. Their poll was conducted between August 25-30.

Tallahassee - Thursday September 1, 2022: A statewide poll conducted by Progress Florida and Florida Watch following the August 23 primary has found a number of competitive statewide races in Florida.

Progress Florida and Florida Watch are collectively known as - The Florida Communications and Research Hub. Their poll was conducted between August 25-30. A news release from the Hub states that their findings were consistent with their July statewide poll.

U.S. Senate Race
In the campaign for United States Senate, the race remains a statistical dead heat, with incumbent Senator Marco Rubio drawing 46% to 45% for Democratic challenger Chief Val Demings.

Governor
The race for Governor also remains a toss up, with incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis receiving 48% of the vote and Congressman Charlie Crist earning 45%. H

Issues
On the issue of rent stabilization, 74% of Floridians would support “declaring a state of emergency for housing affordability to cap rent hikes at 10 percent per year,” including 49% who strongly support this policy.

The Governor’s 15-week abortion ban with no exceptions for rape, incest, or human trafficking remains underwater (37% support / 58% oppose).

Gun Safety
The issue of gun safety is also poised to play an outsize role in the fall campaign. Floridians strongly oppose the Governor’s proposal to allow individuals to carry a gun without a permit (29% support / 69% oppose) and respondents backed a ban on assault weapons (57% support / 40% oppose).

The full memo from the Hub’s Research Department can be seen below.

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Florida Communications and Research Hub
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Florida’s 2022 Midterm Election continues to be competitive. The Hub’s latest polling shows that Republicans lead by +3 pts on the generic ballot (48% Republican / 45% Democratic), and the Governor’s race mirrors this (48% DeSantis / 45% Crist). Meanwhile, the race for the Senate is neck and neck (46% Rubio / 45% Demings).

Political Environment:

The political environment in the state is slightly favorable to Republicans, albeit close and elastic. President Biden’s favorability is on the rise, growing +5 pts since July (43% Favorable / 55% Unfavorable vs. 40% Favorable / 57% Unfavorable in July). While he is still underwater by double digits, as we are seeing across the country Democratic candidates are overperforming the President’s ratings and that is very much the case in Florida.

Senate Race:

  • Since our July poll, Val Demings has had a +7 point jump in name identification. This has been attributed to the Demings campaign’s sustained investment in TV, outcompeting Rubio on ad spending by nearly 2:1. Still, she has room for definition, with 1-in-4 voters saying they are unable to rate her, including 17% of Democrats and 36% of NPAs.
  • Overall, Demings is +6 Favorable (40% Favorable / 34% Unfavorable).
  • In contrast, Rubio is under water (43% Favorable / 52% Unfavorable). Notably, 37% rate him very unfavorable compared to only 21% rating him very favorable.

Issue environment:
Making housing affordable remains a top priority for voters. In fact, three-quarters of voters support rent stabilization (“declaring a state of emergency for housing affordability to cap rent hikes at 10 percent per year”) with 49% saying they strongly support it.

There is intense opposition to the Governor’s agenda. Voters strongly oppose a 15-week abortion ban, permitless carry of firearms, and book banning.

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The Florida Communications and Research Hub
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Methodology:
This poll surveyed n=3,017 statewide voters from August 25-30, 2022 using the Hub’s online panel with Clarity Campaign Labs and has a margin of error of ±1.78%. This poll has been weighted to reflect a likely midterm electorate in terms of geography, race (68% White / 13% Black / 17% Hispanic), and party registration (41% R / 37% D / 22% NPA).