NHC: Tropical Depression #9 Forecast to Become a Category 3 Hurricane; Could Strike Florida by Wednesday
Florida - Friday September 23, 2022: The National Hurricane Center overnight upgraded a disturbance over the Venezuelan coast to Tropical Depression #9 and it is on a track that could take it into the west coast of Florida between Naples and Tampa by Wednesday morning, with impacts felt statewide.
It is expected to strengthen as it moves west-northwest over the Caribbean and is likely to become a tropical storm late Friday. More significant intensification is forecast on Sunday and Monday.
If, as expected, it reaches storm status, the next name on the list is Ian.
"Unfortunately it could impact Florida as a major Category 3 hurricane," said Acting National Hurricane Director Jamie Rhome during an 11 am Friday update. "Don't panic," he said "We are still in the early stages of this event."
VIEW the NHC 11 am Friday briefing HERE> https://fb.watch/fJANEKnvT4/
NOAA: "A Category 3 Hurricane has wind speeds between 111-129 mph. Devastating damage can occur. Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads."
Tropical Depression # 9 - Summary as of 11 am EDT
LOCATION: As of 11 am EST Friday Tropical Depression #9 was located near 14.2N and 70.1W, about 515 miles east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 1,015 miles southeast of Havana Cuba.
MOVEMENT: The depression was moving west-northwest or 290 degrees at 14 mph.
TRACK: On the forecast track, the center of Tropical Depression #9 is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica on Saturday night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday night and early Monday.
WINDS: The maximum sustained winds were 35 mph.
PRESSURE: The minimum central pressure was measured at 1006 millibars or 29.71 inches.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the following rainfall:
* Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Northern Venezuela and Northern Colombia: Additional 1 to 2 inches
* Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with local maximum up to 6 inches
* Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up to 12 inches
* Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14 inches.
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.
SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect at this time.
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND
This system is forecast to approach western Cuba and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday morning. Interests in Cuba and those along the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida west coasts of the U.S. should closely monitor this system.
Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Heavy rains are also likely to spread into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands in the coming days.
Tropical Depression #9 is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding along with possible mudslides of higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao into Friday night. Heavy rain will likely spread into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands through the weekend.
The depression is expected to approach Jamaica and the Cayman islands as an intensifying tropical storm. Watches and warnings for these locations may be required in subsequent forecast cycles.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.