Florida - Wednesday May 31, 2023: The National Hurricane Center continues to watch a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico which is already bringing some heavy rain and gusty winds to Florida, but it's unlikely to develop into a tropical storm.
Tropical Weather Discussion - Gulf of Mexico
A 1008 mb low pressure area has developed over the NE Gulf near 26- north and 87-west, with a trough extending from the low center to near 22-north and 92-west.
Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the eastern half of the Gulf today into Friday. Winds associated with this system are forecast to be fresh over the northeast Gulf beginning tonight.
The low center is well defined on visible satellite imagery, with most of the convective active to the east of the low. A band of showers and thunderstorms is associated with the associated trough. A mid to upper-level trough extends over the eastern Gulf with an upper-level low spinning near 28-north and 88-west supporting the low/trough at the surface.
Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or two as the system meanders over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula.
Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. The latest Tropical
Weather Outlook gives this system a low change of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and also during the next 7 days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
