Florida - Tuesday June 20, 2023: As of late Tuesday afternoon Tropical Storm Bret was tracking a bit further south along the Lesser Antilles chain, and south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Forecasters are no longer confident it will reach hurricane status by Thursday.
The sixth advisory on the storm was issued at 5PM Tuesday afternoon.
Advisory #6 on Tropical Storm Bret - 5PM Tuesday
The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Bret. Tropical storm watches will likely be required for other islands later tonight.
LOCATION: 12.2N 48.6W about 835 miles east of the Windward Islands.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT: West or 280 degrees at 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 millibars or 29.71 inches
OUTLOOK: At 5 p.m. EST the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 47.0 West.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe southward to St. Lucia. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible across Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Isolated urban flooding is also possible.
OUTLOOK: At 5 PM EST, the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 48.6 West. Bret is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.
On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected move across portions of the Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, and then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Bret is expected to be a tropical storm when it reaches the Lesser Antilles Thursday and Thursday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday.
RAINFALL: Through Saturday morning, storm total rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe southward to St. Lucia.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible across Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Isolated urban flooding is also possible.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 - 2 p.m. Tuesday June 20
Eastern Tropical Atlantic - AL93: Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished during the past several hours in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the next couple of days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
