Florida - Thursday June 22, 2023: Tropical Storm Bret and Tropical Depression #4 are expected to go their sperate ways in the coming hours as Bret passes over the Lesser Antilles into the Caribbean Sea, and Tropical Depression #4 veers north west.
Public Advisory #3 for Tropical Depression #4 - 5PM Thursday
As of 5 p.m. EST Thursday : Tropical Depression #4 is expected to become a tropical storm Thursday night or early Friday. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect for this system. Most models have it tracking into the north central Atlantic. It is not expected to pose any threat to the mainland U.S.
LOCATION: 11.5N and 44.0W about 1,190 miles or 1,920 KM east of the Lesser Antilles.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH or 55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW or 285 degrees at 14 MPH or 22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 MB or 29.74 inches
OUTLOOK: At 5 p.m. EST the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 44.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to remain well east of the northern Leeward Islands through early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or early Friday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
Public Advisory #14 for Tropical Storm Bret - 5PM Thursday
As of late Thursday after noon Bret was very near Barbados. heavy rain and strong winds are expected throughout Thursday night as the storm passes over the Lesser Antilles as a strong tropical storm.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Martinique and Dominica. A Tropical Strom Watch remains in effect for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Additional Watches and warnings are possible for some islands in the Lesser Antilles.
There is a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds and dangerous waves along the coast within the warning area.
5PM EST SUMMARY
LOCATION: 13.4N 59.6W about 5 miles or 25 KM NNW of Barbados, and about 100 miles or 160 KM ESE of St. Lucia.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 MPH or 100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT: West or 265 degrees at 16 MPH or 26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 MB or 29.59 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:
* St. Lucia
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for:
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings may be required later.
OUTLOOK
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 59.6 West. Bret is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to move across the Lesser Antilles this evening and tonight, and then move westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next couple of days, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea on Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas through tonight.
RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban flooding is also possible.
SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
