Florida - Wednesday August 14, 2024: Tropical Storm Ernesto did not make a direct landfall on Puerto Rico, brushing past the island to the north overnight, the storm was about 125 miles northwest of San Juan as of 8 AM Wednesday morning. However bands of flooding rain from Ernesto were continuing to pour over both Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this morning.
Tropical Storm Ernesto is now forecast to re-curve northward into the Atlantic and remain well east of Florida as it strengthens into a hurricane.
As it moves north, well off the Florida coastline, increasing swells from the storm will bring dangerous surf and rip currents to the east coast of the U.S. through this weekend.
Hazardous boating conditions will also exist offshore and boaters may also experience hazardous conditions near inlets, especially during the outgoing tide due to the long period swells.
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 11A — NWS National Hurricane Center Miami - 8 AM AST Wed Aug 14
FLOODING RAINS FROM ERNESTO CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF 8 AM AST INFORMATION
- LOCATION: 19.8N 67.2W, ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 MPH...110 KM/H
- PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
- MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 MB...29.26 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the British Virgin Islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
- British Virgin Islands
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico
- Vieques and Culebra
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
DISCUSSION and OUTLOOK
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 67.2 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will move northward away from Puerto Rico through today. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and be nearing Bermuda on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later today and could become a major hurricane in a couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 991 mb (29.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch area during the next few hours.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding remains possible in areas of onshore winds along the eastern coast of Puerto Rico, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. These swells will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.