Florida - Wednesday August 14, 2024: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded Tropical Storm Ernesto to hurricane status Wednesday morning. It is the third hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season.
As of 11 AM this morning, Ernesto was 175 miles to the northwest of San Juan Puerto Rico, moving "rather quickly" at 16 MPH to the northwest, said NHC Director Michael Brennan during an 11 AM update (see below). However feeder bands were still pouring rain over much of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, said Brennan.
Bermuda
As Hurricane Ernesto moves north, well off the Florida coastline, it is expected to gain further strength and become a major hurricane. Brennan said that by Saturday the center of Ernesto is expected to be over or near the island of Bermuda. Rainfall associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A hurricane watch may be required for the island later today.
East Coast of North America
Although this hurricane will remain well off the north American mainland, increasing swells from the storm will bring dangerous surf and rip currents to the east coast of Florida and the rest of the U.S. through this weekend.
These swells will reach the southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday.
Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Hazardous boating conditions will also exist offshore and boaters may also experience hazardous conditions near inlets, especially during the outgoing tide due to the long period swells.
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 12 - NWS National Hurricane Center Miami - 11 AM AST Wed Aug
Ernesto Becomes a Hurricane North of Puerto Rico - Significant Flooding Across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as Heavy Rain Persists
Summary as of 11 AM AST
- LOCATION: 20.5N 67.6W, about 175 miles NW of San Juan Puerto Rico and about 835 miles SSW of Bermuda
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 MPH...120 KM/H
- PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW or 310 degrees at 16 MPH...26 KM/H
- MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 MB...29.27 INCHES
Watches and Warnings
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for:
- British Virgin Islands
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico
- Vieques and Culebra
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
Discussion and Outlook
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 67.6 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight, with a generally northward motion at a slower forward speed continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will continue to move away from Puerto Rico today, move across the western Atlantic during the next few days, and approach Bermuda Friday and Saturday.
Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
Hazards Affecting Land
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, will continue across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the day.
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.