Dry, cool winter weather has settled across Florida’s Treasure Coast, leaving parts of Indian River, St. Lucie and Martin counties in varying stages of drought as the region moves deeper into the dry season.
Tim Miller, bureau chief for water resource information at the St. Johns River Water Management District, said the pattern is typical for winter, when cold fronts lose strength as they push south.
“We expect during this time of year we might get more rainfall in our northern counties, and then typically as those fronts descend further south they tend to be less potent,” Miller said. “So we might get less rainfall as we get down further south.”
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, Indian River County is currently classified as being in moderate drought, while parts of St. Lucie and Martin counties are experiencing moderate to severe drought. Okeechobee County is seeing similar conditions, Miller said.
The St. Johns River Water Management District reports that December rainfall across its coverage area averaged below normal in 17 of 18 counties. Districtwide rainfall totaled about 1.6 inches for the month, nearly an inch below the long-term average, contributing to declining aquifer levels and uneven surface water flows, according to the district.
Dry conditions are also reflected in the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, which measures how susceptible an area is to wildfire.
“Indian River County is in about the 500 range, and that’s higher than normal potential for a wildfire spread if you were to get something going,” Miller said. “As you go further south to St. Lucie and Martin, those numbers are a little bit higher and it looks like they’re in the 600s right now.”
Despite the lack of rain, Miller said the situation is not currently a cause for alarm. Groundwater levels across the district remain within the normal range, though they continue to be closely monitored.
“I’m expecting for Indian River County for it to remain in the normal range as we go through this month,” he said. “As we see what rainfall comes, then we’ll be able to determine further what that’s going to be looking like going forward.”
The dry stretch has left lawns looking parched, but Miller said cooler temperatures reduce the amount of water plants need this time of year.
“The demand for water supply for the plants is less,” he said. “So a little bit of rainfall goes further at this time of year.”
Residents along the Treasure Coast are currently under once-a-week lawn watering schedules, which typically shift back to twice weekly in March as temperatures rise and grass growth increases.
Looking ahead, Miller said long-range forecasts point to warmer conditions and the possibility of continued below-normal rainfall as winter transitions into spring.
“We don’t have a crystal ball,” he said. “But it does look like we’ll be in for warmer temperatures once we get past this cool spell and potentially less than normal rainfall.”
The National Weather Service’s longer-term outlook also suggests a higher likelihood of below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures, according to the water management district.