As beachgoers head to Florida's coastline to escape the summer heat, University of Florida researchers are working on a tool they hope will help people make safer decisions before entering the water.
Researchers are developing an artificial intelligence-powered forecasting system designed to predict where and when harmful Vibrio bacteria are most likely to pose a risk in Florida's coastal waters.
Antar Jutla, an environmental engineering professor at the University of Florida, said the research is focused on three species of Vibrio that have become a growing public health concern.
"We are concerned about two to three particular species of this bacteria. One is called Vibrio parahaemolyticus, second is called Vibrio vulnificus, and the third one is called Vibrio alginolyticus. And the reason that we are concerned about these particular Vibrios is because if you look at the data sets that are right now available with CDC, we are seeing an increase in the number of cases all across the country," Jutla said.
Although infections remain uncommon, Jutla said researchers are trying to stay ahead of the trend before the bacteria become a more widespread threat.
"This infection is still rare. We don't get tons and tons of cases, but what we are basically focusing on is that before we go to that level when it becomes a common known pathogen, we have to tackle it. We have to basically see if we can do something about this bacteria in the environment in terms of where, when and how the risk from this bacteria is going to be high," he said.
Jutla said Treasure Coast waters generally present less risk than Florida's Gulf Coast, but the research is intended to benefit coastal communities across the state.
"Our objective here is to go after all pathogenic Vibrios that are present in the Gulf of America and on the Atlantic side of Florida and build a predictive system using the satellite sensing, which gives us data sets on chlorophyll, sea surface temperature, organic matter and so on. And then basically build intelligence for the public to decide when and where they want to go and enjoy recreational activities," he said.
The forecasting system is intended to function similarly to weather forecasts by identifying areas where exposure risks may be elevated before people head to the water.
"We tend to give an indicator of risk, what is going to be the likely risk of Vibrios in the water system. So the idea here is to provide a map similar to, let's say, a hurricane map. Region X is going to have a high likelihood of flood," he said. "So we're going to provide that information with this system that there is going to be a possibility of a high risk of exposure from Vibrios to population in certain waters."
To generate those forecasts, researchers will combine satellite observations with artificial intelligence to monitor environmental conditions linked to bacterial growth.
"We basically identify the environmental conditions in which these Vibrios are likely going to be present. So, for example, there are temperature ranges in the sea surface temperatures under which we observe more bacterial activity than not. And plankton can be measured using coastal chlorophyll, which can be sensed by satellites," Jutla said. "These two variables, the sea surface temperature and the chlorophyll, can provide a bulk of prediction systems with lead times of two to three weeks as to where and when we should expect higher risk of presence of Vibrios in the water system."
Ultimately, Jutla said the goal is to give residents and visitors better information so they can make informed choices about spending time in coastal waters or consuming seafood.
"In a sense, the health of coastal environment can be determined more realistically using Vibrios as an indicator than any other bacteria in the water. So that's why we wanted to basically build a system where we give power back to people who basically want to go to beaches, want to eat food, seafood and so on," he said.